Brexit – What’s next?

After the official results from the British referendum on Brexit, this topic became so popular that nowadays it is part of our daily life. Since at the end of the month the big decision might be taken for real, I decided that it is a good idea to look at one more time what could happen after Brexit.

  • The beginning.

A public vote was held on Thursday 23 June 2016, to decide whether the UK should leave or remain part of the European Union. Leave won by 52% to 48%. The referendum turnout was very high at 72%, with more than 30 million people voting – 17.4 million people opting for Brexit.

 

  • The after effect.

Brexit was originally due to happen on 29 March 2019. That was two years after then Prime Minister Theresa May triggered Article 50 – the formal process to leave – and kicked off negotiations. But the Brexit date has been delayed twice. Teresa May agreed on a deal with the EU in November 2018, but MPs rejected it three times.

 

  • Eventual second referendum

There could also be another referendum although it would certainly require a Brexit delay and, most likely, a change of government first. The referendum could have the same legal status as the one in 2016. It would be advisory, and the government would have to decide how to respond once the result was known. An alternative would be to hold a so-called “confirmatory” referendum. That would be between a particular Brexit deal and remain – or possibly with no deal as an option. The result of this kind of referendum would be legally binding. Either way, the new referendum would require legislation to be held. There would also have to be time for the Electoral Commission to consider the question wording – especially if it’s a referendum with more than two options. Experts at the Constitution Unit at University College London say it would take a minimum of 22 weeks.

 

  • Is it possible to cancel Brexit?

There is also the legal option of canceling Brexit altogether by revoking Article 50. But clearly, this is not something the current government is contemplating – so it’s only really possible to imagine this outcome after a change of government. The Liberal Democrats have said that if they won a majority in the House of Commons, they would revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit.

Now the big question is no matter the end result what will be the outcome. We all know that for a certain period of time the UK economy will suffer. There are many different opinions on how long it will take it to recover but my personal opinion is that it won’t be too long. Also, do not think that Europe will not suffer from that loss not only economically but politically as well. This is due to the fact that if one country leaves the union this could trigger the domino effect and others to follow. So, with other words, one Brexit could mean the beginning of the end for the European Union.

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